The End of Innovation

Last Saturday, Michael Privat and I drove up to Atlanta to attend Cocoa Camp, a BarCamp-style un-conference focused on Cocoa. We each got two free T-shirts, got to present twice, met a lot of bright folks, learned a lot, and had a great time.

Aaron Hillegass from Big Nerd Ranch gave the keynote on “The End of Innovation.” The man is tall, and he does indeed wear that hat, but he confessed it’s a marketing ploy and he doffs it in the office. His keynote was insightful, though a little depressing, and posited that the end of innovation is here for iPhones and iOS apps. Wow. He followed that, however, with what you can do to fend off the end. Here are the points he made as I understood them:

• The signs of the end of innovation are:
1. Decreasing profit per unit
2. Average age increasing
3. Profits from selling what people want decreasing, while profits from advertising increasing
4. Free solutions nipping at heels of paid solutions
• Server operating systems have reached the end of innovation. Linux (free solution) constitutes 63% of server market.
• Microwaves reached the end of innovation.
• His laptop is from 2006. No reason to upgrade. Computer hardware has reached the end of innovation.
• Television is desperately trying to innovate with 3D, but no one cares.
• The iPhone 4 may have reached the end of innovation. It has two cameras, a gyroscope, etc. — what more could you want? Possible opportunities for innovation:
1. Significantly better battery life, perhaps through async chips that eliminate need for clock.
2. Built-in projector eliminating need for a screen — to view, you’d project the image onto a wall or whatever is handy. This could mean significantly smaller devices.
3. Better speech input.
• Mobile OSes: Android is a free solution nipping at the heels of iOS. iOS is better, but Android is getting closer.
• Carriers want mobile OSes to reach the end of innovation.
• Signs that iOS application development is nearing the end of innovation:
1. Apps must be simple.
2. Apps must be inexpensive.
3. Average consumer doesn’t really care (early adopters buy lots of apps, but mainstream consumers don’t).

So, how can you fend off the end of innovation for iOS apps?

• Change the terms of the three signs that iOS application development is nearing the end of innovation. Apple helped by doing this with the iWork apps for iPad (not simple, not inexpensive, and perhaps more consumers care).
• Embrace new devices like Apple TV.
• Embrace new industries, not just consumer-oriented.
• Embrace new APIs.
• Get interdisciplinary (find niches and exploit them.
• Take the long view (Intel, for example, has started a venture capital firm that invests in companies that do things that consume CPU cycles).
• Don’t fear the tangible. For example, there’s a hardware device that lets you fly a remote-control helicopter with your iPhone.

He concluded by saying that many problems still exist that haven’t been solved, so you still have opportunity in the iOS app market. It was a good talk that could be disheartening for someone looking for easy profits, but painted a realistic view of what iOS developers are up against. Mediocrity in the App Store won’t cut it anymore, but greatness and innovation will.

It was a great conference. You can read Michael’s account of our presentations here.